Oscars Odds (A Gambler’s Look at the 93rd Academy Awards)
With the Oscars two days away, what better way to get excited for the festivities than with a little talk of the awards themselves and who is favored to win. It’s always been interesting to me to take a look at the Awards through the eyes of Las Vegas. These casinos are known for their abilities to predict winners and and set accurate odds to attract the largest amount of bets. That’s why I’m always intrigued by how they go about setting lines for Oscars. Perhaps they have an inside line to the Academy and are more privy to the voting process than the public, or perhaps they simply are film fanatics themselves. Regardless, let’s take a look at the odds for the major awards and see if there is any potential for an upset.
These odds seem all over the place to me. Personally I think JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH was the clear best, but at +3300, Vegas seems to disagree. NOMADLAND has certainly been getting a lot of positive buzz with Chloe Zhao as the dominant favorite for Best Director. I have my doubts it takes home the gold statue though. I think TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 or MINARI will end up winning as minor upsets.
Chloe Zhao is a shoe-in for this award. Winning at both the Golden Globes and DGA award shows, I would be SHOCKED by any other outcome.
Best Actor is incredibly interesting this year. Following his tragic death from a heroic battle with cancer, Chadwick Boseman represents the heavy favorite for the award. Additionally you have Anthony Hopkins and Riz Ahmed giving powerhouse performances in their respective films. I think the Academy will make a point to honor the late Boseman.
Perhaps the biggest toss-up of any major award is the battle for Best Actress. Andra Day won at the Golden Globes, but that was a relatively unexpected upset and likely will not be repeated at the Oscars. I see it being a two woman race between Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis. I think an edge lies with Viola Davis as a well-respected veteran who is no stranger to Academy nominations. That being said, the hype around Carey Mulligan leading up to Sunday has me thinking she takes it home.
Daniel Kaluuya wins. Plain and simple with this one. Dominant performance as Fred Hampton,
I think the 73 year-old Youn Yuh-jung takes it home as the favorite for her performance in MINARI.
I think Aaron Sorkin pulls off the upset with TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7. A particularly relevant screenplay for the year 2020 and an incredible rendering of historic events executed by Sorkin.
Best Adapted likely goes to Chloe Zhao and NOMADLAND for her take on Jessica Bruder’s book.
There you have it though, the Vegas odds for every major awards. Special thanks to The Action Network for providing the odds. You can find their more detailed gambling analysis on the awards here if that interests you.